Young Voters Emerge from Slumber!

CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
Feb. 25, 2008 – 5:51 p.m.
Poll Shows Spike in Young Voter Interest — to Democrats' Benefit So Far
By Lauren Phillips, CQ Staff

The nation's youngest voters, after years of lagging behind the general populace in political participation, may be on the verge of a breakthrough in a year marked by a hotly contested election for president. And the 18-to-29 year olds who responded to a major bipartisan poll released Monday morning say it's not just about Barack Obama — even if the Illinois Democratic senator currently is a strong favorite for president among members of this demographic group.


Eighty percent of young voters said they were following the election closely, nearly twice the 42 percent who said the same during the 2006 midterm congressional election year, according to the survey sponsored by the nonpartisan youth-turnout initiative Rock the Vote and conducted jointly by Republican pollster Ed Goeas of The Tarrance Group and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners. Eighty-two percent said they intended to vote in this election.


"We've never seen young people pay this kind of attention this early," Lake said. "This is not an angry generation, it is an energized generation."


The survey data suggests that Republicans will have to do a serious sales job among younger voters between now and November, if they are to prevent the upsurge in interest from turning this constituency into a potentially decisive bloc in favor of the Democrats. The poll showed 47 percent of 18-29 year olds identified themselves as Democrats to 28 percent who said they are Republicans and 16 percent who said they are independents.


"The news is not particularly good for Republicans," Goeas said. "The one thing we have seen in this election is that the rules of this election are being written as the events occur."


Comparable figures in a November 2006 survey showed the Democrats with a much smaller 40 percent to 30 percent lead over the Republicans, with 23 percent calling themselves independents.


Lake added, "Young people are far more engaged beyond just a cult of personality." Forty percent of respondents said they were following the election because they felt it was going to be very important, followed by 29 percent who want change. Just eight percent said they were excited about a particular candidate, tied with caring about a particular issue and voting for the first time.


Yet the survey showed a definitive lean toward Obama that has already been discerned empirically from exit polling taken in states that have held their primaries and from the composition of audiences at campaign rallies. Among respondents, Obama was viewed favorably by 69 percent and unfavorably by just 20 percent, with 11 percent having no opinion or saying they've never heard of him. New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton is much closer to universal ID — only 6 percent would not venture an opinion — but the split is much more narrow between young voters who like Clinton (51 percent) and those who do not (43 percent).


Arizona Sen. John McCain , the strong front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination, had tepid approval numbers among the young respondents, at 44 percent favorable to 33 unfavorable. McCain would have to overcome an age gap to make serious headway with this group: He turns 72 in August and would be the oldest president at the time of his first election. And despite the fact that McCain has spent a quarter-century in Congress, ran a vigorous campaign for the 2000 Republican presidential nomination and is well-known nationally for the long period of captivity he endured as a Vietnam POW, 24 percent of the 18-29 respondents said they had no opinion or did not know him.


Both of the Democratic contenders have big leads over McCain in hypothetical matchups, but Obama's lead is much bigger. Obama had a 57 percent to 27 percent edge over McCain head-to-head, with 15 percent undecided. Clinton led McCain among younger voters by 47 percent to 35 percent with 18 percent undecided.


While both Clinton and Obama run well among young women in the polls, the differences in the Democratic candidates' appeal to young men voters is striking. McCain had a 6 percentage-point edge over Clinton among all male respondents, but it turned into an 18-point deficit against Obama.


And while respondents favored both Democrats over McCain on most of the characteristics tested by the pollsters, Obama was favored by stronger margins on issues such as "will bring change," "understands the problems of people your age," "will bring people together," "stands up for what they believe," "shares your values," "will get things done," "honest and trustworthy," and "is strong enough to be president."


The young respondents of both parties said the economy was their top priority issue. They said they are most worried about the economy's impact on the incomes jobs will pay, health care, and child care or college costs.


"Young people were worried about the economy before older voters were," Lake said, referring to their 2006 survey. "Older voters followed their insight into the shape of the economy."


The younger voters reflected a partisan split on priorities below that of the economy. For Democrats, the Iraq war was the second-most important issue, followed by health care and education and the cost of college. For Republicans, immigration was the second concern, followed by gas prices and health care, which tied with the federal budget deficit.


The poll also reflected the influence of new media on young people and this election. About 33 percent of the survey's 518 poll respondents were reached on their cell phones. Twenty-four percent said they had visited a campaign Web site, and 34 percent had watched an online video or relating to the election.


"We are seeing almost as many people going and looking at the videos of these candidates online as we are seeing participate in the process of voting," Goeas said. "Those are huge numbers at this point in the campaign."


Sixty percent said they are talking about the election with their friends. Lake called this trend a "phenomenon," saying just one-third of adults say they talk to their friends about politics.